When Elementary Math Can’t Predict the Market, Trust This Supercomputer

We can apply some common sense and elementary math to gain some idea of how much we might earn in the market over the next several years from current levels.

We know that in the past when the 10-year PE ratio of the stock market was below the mean, future returns were pretty high.

We know that when this ratio was above the long-term mean, future returns were very low.

And we know that right now we are way above the mean, and that the future for stock prices is not as good as it has been.

So let’s have a look at a chart and some numbers that prove this (and the supercomputer that could beat it)


3 Tough Questions I’d Ask Buffett If I Won Lunch with Him

If you’re lonely, in dire need of a lunch date, or just happen to have a few million dollars lying around, you could try your luck at scoring the most successful investor in history.

The “Have Lunch with Warren Buffett” auction happens once per year, and the most recent winning bid reached as high as $3.3 million when all was said and done. Instead of being a meaningless opportunity for rich people to throw money around, the auction raises money for GLIDE, the favorite charity of Buffet’s late wife, geared toward serving San Francisco’s homeless population.

Some pretty cool things have happened to those who bid up for the meal. Ted Weschler, for example, paid about $5.3 million total to win the auction two years in a row. He now picks stocks and manages over $10 billion at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A).

I have to admit it would be cool to have lunch with Warren Buffett. I would even pick up the tab for his signature steak and hash browns at Smith & Wollensky or any other steakhouse of his choosing.

But while GLIDE may be a great cause, it could never inspire me enough to pony up the kind of money these rich Buffettologists are paying just to say they had lunch with their idol.

Yes, Warren Buffett is still the most successful investor and businessman in American history. He and right-hand man Charlie Munger have transformed Berkshire from an investment firm into an enormous collection of businesses. Very few people on the planet can make that transition with the same level of success.

Although I won’t shell out $3 million to share a steak lunch, I’ve long been brewing over many questions I’d ask him if I had the chance.

They concern issues that the Oracle of Omaha needs to get straight, for the sake of individual investors like us…

And honestly, three of them in particular may come off as a bit crass…


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