Get Off The Hamster Wheel, Get On The Ferris Wheel

Last week was fun, wasn’t it? For the first time in many months we saw some big down days as investors got a little panicky over the potential for higher interest rates, midterm elections, and anything else they got worked up about. Of course, this immediately started all the chatter about what happens next.

Are we going to have a bear market now? Will prices collapse? Should I sell? Should I buy more? What is the stock market going to do next?

If you think you actually know the answer to those questions, you may be a hamster.

Anyone who confidently predicts the next move in the market is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you.

I have been doing this a long time, and the stock market never does what we all think it should.  I have seen markets rally on bad news and sell off on good news. While in the long term stock prices will reflect the value of the companies, in the short run it’s more of a psychological soup that often responds irrationally.

Making drastic moves based on your, or anyone’s, forecast of market direction is usually a fool’s errand. You will end up running in place, like our furry friend, and not getting much of anywhere.

If you really want to see what’s going on, you need a much bigger wheel (like a Ferris wheel) that will give you a much better view.

That means being aware of where we are in the long-term economic and market cycle….and making smart numbers decisions that help us profit


Don’t Panic – Make 20%

Every redneck worth his salt owns “Big Mouth Billy Bass” who flaps his animatronic tail in time to the beat of “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.”

My fish sings a slightly modified version of the Bobby McFerrin tune called “Don’t Panic – Make 20%.”

Or 50% – or 100% – as the case may be.

I’m about to tell you a story of how I focused on cold, hard numbers – ignored some scary day-to-day price fluctuations – and ended up making double digits instead of losing my shirt.

All thanks to the WAR metric that’s generated my undefeated track record – and that can help you start your own.


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