Earlier this week my daughter and her husband took the world’s most beautiful granddaughter to her first baseball game. She went to the tiebreaker between the Cubs and Brewers at Wrigley Stadium on Monday. Although the Cubs lost, it’s really not a bad game to have as your very first. At nine months she is a little bit older than her mother was when I started taking her to games. We lived in East Baltimore when my daughter was born, and we often went to the game by bus during her first year of life.
We took in at least 20 games during her first 6 months of life, and I learned two very valuable lessons. First, when taking a baby to a baseball game, always get seating in the shade. Second, anything more than one bottle per 4.5 innings is coming back to you at some point in the afternoon.
(And yours, if you pay attention…)
Those of you who were around in the 1980s and 1990s remember Nancy Reagan in her stylish suits telling you to “just say no.” If you, like me, were more inclined to “just say yes” as a youth, these may not be particularly fond memories.
Today, I’d like to propose a new campaign that will no doubt sweep America: “Just say ‘I don’t know.'”
It won’t keep you off drugs, but it will make you a whole lot of money.
Charlie Munger, the co-chair of Berkshire Hathaway, explains the most important concept in investing very simply: “Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
I get asked about the market all the time, and following Charlie, my usual answer is “I don’t know.”
On the surface, it seems like I should have an idea or prediction about the stock market and where it is headed. But as it turns out, that’s not even a small part of the secret of making money in stocks.
- What is the S&P 500 going to do tomorrow? I don’t know.
- Where will interest rates be in a year? I don’t know.
- Who is going to win in the midterm elections? I don’t know.
- What will Apple earn this quarter? I don’t know.
- When will emerging markets recover? I don’t know.
And I don’t care, because I’m still going to beat the S&P 4 to 1 (or better). Here’s how…