In the past few weeks, my inbox has been blowing up with email messages with big bright headlines advising me what to do with my portfolio before the midterm elections. These pundits and prophets are suggesting all sorts of clever things that you need to do right now to protect yourself from all the changes that could happen if the Republicans either keep or lose control of the House of Representatives.
If you get such an email, do us both a favor and just hit delete.
Three Problems with “The Prediction Machine”
- They look at the short term.
- They look at sensational stories, not at numbers.
- They draw correlations that aren’t actually there.
The arrogance of someone making a confident prediction about election outcomes in the muddled mess that is the state of American politics right now is stunning. Right now, the forecasters and gamblers have the Democrats gaining the House and the GOP retaining control of the Senate. Keep in mind we have 4 weeks to go, and most of these same forecasters had Hillary winning the election and the Kavanaugh confirmation being denied.
The world of politics has been much harder to “game” since 2016. In fact, it’s almost as difficult to accurately predict electoral outcomes as it is to predict stock market moves.
However, as a self-confessed political junkie and undefeated market strategist, I have figured out the one thing you need to do to make money no matter what happens on November 6.