We are well into the new year now, and the prediction game is reaching something of a frenzy.
By this point, I’ve read several hundred market predictions for 2020, and there is something of a consensus.
GDP growth will be around 2%, interest rates will remain low, stocks will provide single to low double-digit returns, and unless something goes horribly wrong in the economy, Donald Trump will be reelected.
There are very few people expecting a strong pick up in volatility or risk in the year ahead which makes me want to sit around with some very smart people and a bottle of bourbon to consider possible black swans that may occur in the next year to two with the potential for life-changing profits.
Now, I’ve made some money by making black swan bets on events that no one thought could happen where the math of the probability and payout calculation lined up correctly.
However, I’ve never made a nickel on a prediction in the stock market whether it was my own or someone else’s.
Making the type of precise projections that the Wall Street strategists and TV pundits make strikes me as a colossal waste of time and brainpower.
I prefer to find strategies where the numbers indicate I have a very high probability of trouncing the market, and that’s exactly what I’m going to show you today.